NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019
000 WTNT43 KNHC 020249 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 Lorenzo's convective cloud pattern has eroded significantly during the past 6 hours, with an eye no longer evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, a ragged remnant eye feature is still present in passive microwave imagery, and that data indicates that the mid- and upper-level circulations are tilted about 15-20 nmi northeast of the low-level center due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates have also decreased and now support around 75 kt. However, the intensity is being maintained at 85 kt due to Lorenzo's faster forward speed, which is now about 10 kt more than it was on the previous advisory, offsetting the possible decrease in the tangential winds. The 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had to once again be expanded in nearly every quadrant, but especially to the southeast, based on a 2305 UTC ASCAT-B overpass. The larger wind field is now expected to result in sustained hurricane-force winds occurring across portions of the western and central Azores on Wednesday morning. Despite the hurricane's extremely large size, Lorenzo has continued to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/35 kt. Lorenzo's forward speed should gradually level off near 40 kt on Wednesday, and then gradually begin to decrease by Thursday morning when the cyclone turns more eastward toward Ireland. By late Thursday, post-tropical Lorenzo is forecast to turn east-southeastward, crossing Ireland and southern England. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so only minor tweaks were required, and new advisory lies close to an average of the various consensus model forecast tracks. Lorenzo is currently moving over sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 24 deg C, and that isn't taking into account any cold upwelling that is likely occurring beneath the very large hurricane. With only colder water ahead of the cyclone, coupled with vertical shear increasing to more than 40 kt by 12 hours, rapid transition to a powerful post-tropical/extratropical cyclone is expected shortly after Lorenzo passes the Azores. However, only gradual weakening is foreast during the next 24 hours due to baroclinic interaction with an upper-level trough and frontal system. After that time, a more rapid rate of weakening is expected when Lorenzo will be moving over Ireland and England. Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds to the Azores beginning within the next couple of hours, with those dangerous conditions continuing into Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 39.1N 32.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 42.7N 28.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/0000Z 48.4N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/1200Z 52.8N 15.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0000Z 54.1N 10.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0000Z 52.3N .5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2019
000 WTNT23 KNHC 020247 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 32.7W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT.......200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 600SE 660SW 680NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 32.7W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 34.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.7N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.4N 21.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 200SE 200SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.1N 10.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 160SE 160SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 52.3N .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 32.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019
000 WTNT33 KNHC 020248 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NOW LASHING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AS LORENZO GROWS LARGER AND ACCELERATES TOWARD THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.1N 32.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. Seek shelter immediately. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 32.7 West. Lorenzo is accelerating and is now moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lorenzo is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). During the past hour, a 10-minute average wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. A 10-minute average wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was reported at Horta on Faial island in the central Azores. The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 960 mb (28.35 inches) based on data from a nearby NOAA drifting buoy, which reported a pressure of 961.5 mb around 0200 UTC. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are already occuring across the western and central Azores. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NOW LASHING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES… …HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AS LORENZO GROWS LARGER AND ACCELERATES TOWARD THE AZORES…
As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1
the center of Lorenzo was located near 39.1, -32.7
with movement NE at 40 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 960 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.