NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 Late afternoon visible satellite imagery and ship observations show that the disturbance's circulation has become better defined. In addition, there has been an increase in convective banding around the western portion of the system. As a result, the system is being classified as a tropical storm. The initial wind speed is maintained at 35 kt, which is in agreement with earlier scatterometer data, and the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Narda is located within an area of moderate northeasterly shear and is likely to interact with the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico on Sunday. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicated within the next 24 hours, followed by some weakening as the system moves near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain. If the system tracks to the right of the official forecast it would likely weaken and dissipate over southern Mexico, but if it remains farther west or just offshore, it could be stronger than indicated below. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the southeastern United States should continue to steer the disturbance northwestward during the next couple of days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both take the system inland within the next 24 hours, however the ensemble means favor a track near, but just offshore of the coast. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but the confidence after 36-48 hours is quite low due to the potential land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290241 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 100.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 120SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 90SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 290241 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NARDA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 100.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 100.6 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing Narda very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, if the center moves closer to the coast and interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening could occur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
…DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NARDA… …HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO…
As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 28
the center of Narda was located near 15.4, -100.6
with movement NW at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.