NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019
000 WTNT43 KNHC 280236 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Lorenzo's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening. A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed a significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone, indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory. Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and undergo extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity models. The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.8N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019
135 WTNT33 KNHC 280235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 44.1W ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Recent satellite wind data indicate that Lorenzo is still a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
…LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC…
As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27
the center of Lorenzo was located near 20.8, -44.1
with movement NNW at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 952 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019
000 WTNT23 KNHC 280233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS