NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
000 WTNT43 KNHC 260235 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo, and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance through 72 hours. Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5, the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 14.7N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019
000 WTNT23 KNHC 260234 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 280SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 37.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019
000 WTNT33 KNHC 260235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 38.1W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 38.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday, followed by a turn to the north by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday, with some additional strengthening possible through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
…LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY…
As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25
the center of Lorenzo was located near 14.7, -38.1
with movement WNW at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 974 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.