NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000 WTNT45 KNHC 250240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of 34 to 36 kt. The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps conservatively, to 40 kt. Increasing shear and dry air that is being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next couple of days. If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning. Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that island. The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast. Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or 025/4 kt. The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn southeastward before dissipation occurs. The official track forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 31.4N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
000 WTNT25 KNHC 250239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 68.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 68.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019
000 WTNT35 KNHC 250239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
…AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER…
As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24
the center of Jerry was located near 31.4, -68.7
with movement NNE at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.