NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
000 WTNT42 KNHC 240251 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force. The aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb. Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After that time, a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry. However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen, and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting the cyclone. However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show little change in intensity during the next several days. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.1N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
000 WTNT22 KNHC 240250 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 65.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 65.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 65.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
000 WTNT32 KNHC 240250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 65.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
…KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS… …HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY…
As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23
the center of Karen was located near 16.1, -65.8
with movement NW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.