NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210256 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The eye of Lorena passed near or over the Cabo Pulmo area of the Baja California peninsula a few hours ago and is currently located just off of the east coast of the peninsula east-southeast of La Paz. Satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane remains well organized, with cold eyewall cloud tops surrounding a cloud-filled eye. Based on the land interaction that has occurred since the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly conservative 70 kt. Lorena has continued to move to the right of the previous forecast track, and the initial motion is now 330/7. The hurricane is mostly being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. This combination should steer Lorena generally north-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The track guidance has continued to shift to the right since the last advisory. As a result, the new forecast track has also shifted and now calls for the center of Lorena to move up the length of the Gulf of California. However, the GFS, the old version of the GFS, and the ECMWF are all to the right of the current track, with these models forecasting a more northward motion into mainland Mexico. Thus, additional adjustments to the forecast track may be required on subsequent advisories. The new forecast track requires significant changes to the watches and warnings for the Baja California peninsula and northwestern mainland Mexico. Lorena should spend another 24-36 h over the warm waters of the Gulf of California in light to moderate shear conditions. The intensity guidance does not show much strengthening during this time, and the official forecast follows the guidance. However, it would not be a surprise if Lorena strengthened a little given the current structure. After that, the cyclone should encounter strong shear which would likely cause steady to even rapid weakening, and the intensity forecast has the system weakening to a remnant low as it reaches the northern end of the Gulf of California. If the cyclone makes an earlier landfall in mainland Mexico, it will likely dissipate faster than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States from late this weekend into early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula through tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane conditions to portions of mainland Mexico where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 24.0N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210256 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 109.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from La Paz to Santa Rosalia. The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista. The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Bahia Kino. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California near the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Saturday, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday night. After that, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across the hurricane warning area tonight through Saturday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over western Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
…EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR… …NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO…
As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 20
the center of Lorena was located near 24.0, -109.7
with movement NNW at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 986 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.