ABPZ20 KNHC 112332
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Recent visible
imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system
has a broad closed surface circulation, but the associated showers
and thunderstorms are somewhat limited and disorganized. However,
any increase in thunderstorm activity will result in the formation
of a tropical depression, and this will likely happen tonight or
early Thursday while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1400 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system
moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Some development is possible
thereafter while the system moves westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.