NHC Hurricane Advisories
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019
000 WTNT45 KNHC 070249 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 During the past couple of hours Dorian's eye has become no longer apparent in conventional satellite imagery. Microwave data shows an eye-like feature just to the south of the convection, and also indicates that the hurricane is becoming asymmetric. The lack of symmetry is the first indication or hint that Dorian is slowly beginning to acquire some extratropical characteristics. The rain shield is now placed to the northwest of the center, and the wind field is expanding in the southern semicircle. Dvorak numbers are either steady or have decreased slightly, and consequently the initial intensity is kept at 80 kt in this advisory. The hurricane is rapidly reaching cooler waters and guidance shows an area of significantly strong shear along the forecast path of Dorian. Given these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual weakening, but Dorian is still expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia with hurricane intensity late Saturday. Dorian is forecast to complete its transition to extratropical once it crosses Nova Scotia. The hurricane is racing northeastward or 045 degrees at 22 kt. Since Dorian is already embedded within a fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, the current northeast heading should continue until dissipation occurs in about 3 days, if not sooner. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 38.3N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 40.8N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 49.0N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z 52.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019
000 WTNT25 KNHC 070248 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADJUSTED THE WARNINGS FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO EASTWARD AROUND NOVA SCOTIA TO AVONPORT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FROM TIDNISH TO BRULE AND FROM FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO AVONPORT A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO. * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * MAGDALEN ISLANDS * SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO INDIAN HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA * NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA * EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST PUBNICO * FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PARSON'S POND TO TRITON * INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONE'S COVE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 400SE 300SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 71.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.8N 66.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...340NE 280SE 240SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 70.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019
000 WTNT35 KNHC 070248 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 ...DORIAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA IN A HURRY... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 70.2W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and a hurricane warning is now in effect from Lower East Pubnico eastward around Nova Scotia to Avonport, and the tropical storm warning is effect from Tidnish to Brule and from Fundy National Park to Shediac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Avonport A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico. * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA * East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME * Prince Edward Island * Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico * Fundy National Park to Shediac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Parson's Pond to Triton * Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to move over Nova Scotia with hurricane force winds. Thereafter, Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over eastern Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday night. STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches. New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
…DORIAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA IN A HURRY… …HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY…
As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 6
the center of Dorian was located near 38.3, -70.2
with movement NE at 25 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 960 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.