ABPZ20 KNHC 141731
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2019
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The first few visible satellite images of the day indicate that the
the low pressure system located more than 1300 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula does not have a
well-defined center, and the circulation remains elongated. In
addition, the low is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity at this time. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could still form over the next few days before the
system reaches cooler waters and upper-level winds become
unfavorable. This disturbance is forecast to move west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south or
southeast of the southeastern coast of Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the system early next week while the system moves
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.