Monthly Archives: September 2016

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 12 2016-09-30 22:59:22

1475290762
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016


000
WTNT44 KNHC 010259
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.
Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably
with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since
2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to
140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain
a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the
reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum
winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur
soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given
that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some
weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a
category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern
Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of
Cuba.  It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid
strengthening of Matthew.

Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt
steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic.
In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of
the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and
then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very
consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate
much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast
period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track
models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing
the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely
the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 13.3N  72.3W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 13.3N  73.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 13.7N  74.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 14.6N  75.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 16.0N  76.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 19.0N  76.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 23.1N  76.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 26.0N  76.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/010259.shtml

Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 12 2016-09-30 22:57:51

1475290671
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016


000
WTNT24 KNHC 010257
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0300 UTC SAT OCT 01 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND
ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  72.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  941 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
34 KT.......180NE  60SE  50SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  72.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  72.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.3N  73.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE  80SE  50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N  74.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N  75.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE  70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.0N  76.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.1N  76.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.0N  76.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N  72.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/010257.shtml

Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 12 2016-09-30 22:57:51

1475290671
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016


000
WTNT34 KNHC 010257
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 72.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 72.3 West.  Matthew is moving
just south of due west near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula tonight, move
across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be approaching
Jamaica late Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts.  Matthew is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance aircraft
was 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia overnight.  Hurricane
conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/010257.shtml

Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016) 2016-09-30 22:57:51

1475290671
…MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE… …THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007…
As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.3, -72.3
with movement W at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 941 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/010257.shtml

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 2016-09-30 19:44:46

1475279086

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302344
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. The system is moving
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and development is not expected
before it reaches cooler waters in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac

Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 11A 2016-09-30 19:42:52

1475278972
Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016


000
WTNT34 KNHC 302342
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW WITH 150 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.90 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Matthew
was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 72.0 West.  Matthew
is moving south of due west near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A westward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday.  A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula tonight,
move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be near
Jamaica late on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km) primarily to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.90 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia through tonight.  Hurricane
conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha.  Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.

Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/302342.shtml