Monthly Archives: July 2016

Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3 2016-07-31 22:38:51

1470019131
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010238
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much since the
previous advisory.  Geostationary satellite and microwave images
indicate that most of the deep convection is confined to the
southern portion of the circulation with some thin and fragmented
bands to the north of the center.  The Dvorak T-number from TAFB was
lowered slightly from that of the previous classification. Given the
lack of increased organization, the initial intensity is again held
at 30 kt.

Some strengthening seems likely during the next day or so while the
depression remains over relatively warm water and in conducive
atmospheric conditions.  The strengthening trend should be
relatively short lived though since the cyclone is forecast to move
over cool waters and into a more stable environment in about 36
hours, which should induce weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and is similar to the SHIPS
guidance.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving toward the
west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 10 kt.  A slightly faster
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as a
mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone strengthens.  A turn
to the west is predicted by the end of the period when the shallow
cyclone is steered by the low-level trade winds.  The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 15.8N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 16.5N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.7N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.9N 131.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 21.9N 136.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z 22.8N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 23.2N 147.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/010238.shtml

Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Advisory Number 3 2016-07-31 22:36:51

1470019011
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 01 2016


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 010236
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
0300 UTC MON AUG 01 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 122.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 122.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 121.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 123.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.9N 131.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.9N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.8N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.2N 147.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 122.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP4+shtml/010236.shtml

Tropical Depression NINE-E Public Advisory Number 3 2016-07-31 22:37:21

1470019041
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010237
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 122.0W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 122.0 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h)
and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm overnight or on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/010237.shtml

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 2016-07-31 19:38:23

1470008303

000
ABNT20 KNHC 312338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show
signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed
surface circulation. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in
a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cause locally
heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight. These conditions are also
spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by
late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc