Monthly Archives: May 2015

Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion Number 2 2015-05-31 22:36:20

1433126180
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010236
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
past few hours.  The center, a tight swirl of low clouds, has
disappeared underneath new convective growth and a veil of cirrus
clouds.  Deep convection is primarily confined to the southeastern
semicircle of the depression's circulation, indicative of strong
northwesterly shear associated with strong outflow of Hurricane
Andres.  Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0 and T1.5 from TAFB
and SAB, respectively, so the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/04.  A mid-level
ridge over Central America should give the depression a push toward
the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  An erratic motion with
a turn toward the south or south-southeast is expected between 24
and 72 hours, when the depression reaches a col area and then is
caught up in the weak flow around a mid-level anticyclone to its
west.  After this time, global models show a trough arriving along
the U.S. West Coast, which causes a ridge over Baja California to
shift eastward into northern Mexico.  This change in the steering
flow should result in a northwestward motion at a faster forward
speed toward the end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast
has not changed much over the first 72 hours but is adjusted to the
right after 96 hours to be in better agreement with the multi-model
consensus (TVCE).

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear over the depression should
continue during the next 24 hours, but the shear appears to be
confined to the upper troposphere and not over a deep enough layer
to prevent slow intensification.  Model guidance is unanimous in
showing the the shear diminishing to very low values by 36 to 48
hours. The more conducive upper-level winds, combined with very warm
sea surface temperatures of around 30 deg C as well as a very moist
and unstable environment, favor a substantial intensification after
48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is increased to nearly match
the SHIPS model output, at the upper end of the intensity guidance,
and shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane status in 4 days.
Some increase in easterly shear late in the period is possible, and
the intensity forecast is therefore leveled off after 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 12.7N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 13.1N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 13.4N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 13.2N 104.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 12.6N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 12.2N 104.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 13.5N 105.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/010236.shtml

Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion Number 2 2015-05-31 22:35:37

1433126137
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
past few hours.  The center, a tight swirl of low clouds, has
disappeared underneath new convective growth and a veil of cirrus
clouds.  Deep convection is primarily confined to the southeastern
semicircle of the depression's circulation, indicative of strong
northwesterly shear associated with strong outflow of Hurricane
Andres.  Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0 and T1.5 from TAFB
and SAB, respectively, so the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/04.  A mid-level
ridge over Central America should give the depression a push toward
the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  An erratic motion with
a turn toward the south or south-southeast is expected between 24
and 72 hours, when the depression reaches a col area and then is
caught up in the weak flow around a mid-level anticyclone to its
west.  After this time, global models show a trough arriving along
the U.S. West Coast, which causes a ridge over Baja California to
shift eastward into northern Mexico.  This change in the steering
flow should result in a northwestward motion at a faster forward
speed toward the end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast
has not changed much over the first 72 hours but is adjusted to the
right after 96 hours to be in better agreement with the multi-model
consensus (TVCE).

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear over the depression should
continue during the next 24 hours, but the shear appears to be
confined to the upper troposphere and not over a deep enough layer
to prevent slow intensification.  Model guidance is unanimous in
showing the the shear diminishing to very low values by 36 to 48
hours. The more conducive upper-level winds, combined with very warm
sea surface temperatures of around 30 deg C as well as a very moist
and unstable environment, favor a substantial intensification after
48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is increased to nearly match
the SHIPS model output, at the upper end of the intensity guidance,
and shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane status in 4 days.
Some increase in easterly shear late in the period is possible, and
the intensity forecast is therefore leveled off after 96 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 12.7N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 13.1N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 13.4N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 13.2N 104.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 12.6N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 12.2N 104.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 13.5N 105.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Advisory Number 2 2015-05-31 22:31:51

1433125911
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 01 2015


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 010231
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
0300 UTC MON JUN 01 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 103.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.4N 104.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.2N 104.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.6N 104.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.2N 104.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 13.5N 105.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 103.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/010231.shtml

Tropical Depression TWO-E Public Advisory Number 2 2015-05-31 22:32:21

1433125941
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 010232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE ERRATICALLY AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 103.3W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two-E
was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 103.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected
through late Monday, followed by a turn toward the south or south-
southeast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by quicker strengthening on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/010232.shtml