Monthly Archives: September 2013

Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 9 2013-09-30 22:45:56

1380595556
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013


000
WTNT41 KNHC 010245
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013
 
THE STRUCTURE OF JERRY HAS EVOLVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. EARLIER TODAY THE CLOUD PATTERN RESEMBLED A SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENTLY...BANDING FEATURES
HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MUCH MORE
SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON
A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.
 
THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE STORM DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS APPARENTLY SLACKENED...GIVEN THE MORE SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON JERRY. THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 HOURS...
WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE SINCE THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE RANGING FROM DISSIPATION WITHIN A
FEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS...TO A HURRICANE 
AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM.
 
JERRY IS STILL MOVING EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL SOON SLOW DOWN AND
MEANDER WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT LIES
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 27.4N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 27.2N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 27.1N  44.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 27.3N  45.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 27.9N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 29.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 30.5N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 33.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/010245.shtml

Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 9 2013-09-30 22:42:46

1380595366
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013


000
WTNT21 KNHC 010242
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  43.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  43.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  44.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.2N  44.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.1N  44.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.3N  45.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.9N  46.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N  47.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 30.5N  45.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 33.0N  41.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N  43.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/010242.shtml

Tropical Storm JERRY Public Advisory Number 9 2013-09-30 22:43:43

1380595423
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013


000
WTNT31 KNHC 010243
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013
 
...JERRY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 43.8W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST. JERRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD BY LATE
TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/010243.shtml

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 2013-09-30 19:16:16

1380582976

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302316
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY…LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD…AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI…JAMAICA…AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THESE RAINS WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT…

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 2013-09-30 19:15:16

1380582916

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302315
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT…

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml